This is sort of convoluted. I was talking a while ago with a friend, with whom I had previously shared my frustration about an ill-conceived project that someone was pushing for. The person I was talking to saw the proposed project wasn't a great idea. We chatted again more recently, and we discussed a nickname for the person pushing this project that the person I was talking with came up with, as well as another project that the person is proposing that I think is also ill-conceived. (The person in question has rather a history of poorly conceived/executed projects. It is VERY frustrating to deal with.) The person I was talking with doesn't know who the person is, or what the other project is. Then, later in the conversation, the person called over another mutual friend and talked excitedly about the other project that I was referring to. My face sort of froze, but I don't think that they picked up on what my reaction was.
Now, it is possible that I am mistaken about the projects. But I feel that I am usually a fairly good judge of character/how things will head, so I don't think that I am wrong. But I guess I could be. The people who I am hearing second hand about the project aren't (to the best of my knowledge) putting in any resources or risking anything material. However, I feel awkward that they are likely being set up for disappointment. I also hate feeling that I might come across (or effectively be), a Debbie Downer, or someone who squishes something that might be perceived as being a power mad bully.
So, where does my ethical obligation lie? No one has directly asked me what I think, so I have stayed silent. If things go the way that I think, it will eventually become obvious what the story is. I feel bad about not doing something to prevent disappointment for people I genuinely like, but I also worry about creating problems. (I also want to be fair. Just because I think that something won't work out does not mean that I am right.)
The Wiccan Rede is "Do as ye will, an it harm none" ("An" being an archaic phrasing meaning "if".) As a Pagan, I feel that I should honor this. The question is, what constitutes harm in this case?
Years ago, our original High Priestess was quasi dating an openly gay guy, who I think was principally interested in getting to have official status. She wanted a High Priest as sort of a boyfriend substitute. It felt like a mutually parasitic relationship. Icky! At one point, I felt that I had to sit her down and tell her that I thought that this "relationship" was probably going to leave her feeling sad. She already knew that he was gay (heck, Helen Keller would have been finger spelling "who's the homo???" into someone's palm within 5 minutes of meeting him.) I felt bad about intruding into someone else's situation, but I felt like it was something I had to do.
When a complete creep staged a phony AIDS benefit cruise that ripped people off, I was aware that his ex knew that the creep had a history of ripping people off (as in criminal charges.) I was rather mad that the ex never said anything. The creep did in fact get caught. I testified at his trial.
On the other hand, years ago, someone was putting on a local event. The first year that they did it, it didn't turn out well. I felt that to be fair, I should give it my support the next year. The second time around, it was a smashing success, and I was delighted that my fears were disproved. (Although, the person in this case had a track record of other successes. In the case that I am dealing with now, the history is not quite so good.)
For the future, I am leaning towards keeping my mouth shut, and letting things go where they will. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe this is a lesson that folks need to learn. Maybe this is a lesson I need to learn. It really isn't up to me to save the world. But it does feel icky that I might effectively watching folks driving off a cliff. I even feel bad about writing this blog entry, even though I think I am maintaining confidentiality. I feel like I need to puzzle this out. I have lost sleep over this sort of stuff.
Huge sigh!
If I may also get all witchy on ya...
Maybe The Goddess is testing you. If it were me, I would say "what's the best that can happen if I open my mouth?" and "what's the worst?" I would weigh those and maybe come to a conclusion. Why don't you try some kind of "what should I do" ritual? Maybe some runes or something. Or toss a dice.
As a reporter, I can say my default is to stay quiet and let the other person talk. Unless someone is in danger (physically, emotionally, financially, etc.), I would bide my time and bite my tongue.